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Dec 082020

In particular, the PEPP provides fiscal space for governments to increase their debt issuance substantially. Going forward, we expect the Governing Council to increase the programme by additional €400bn at its December meeting. 24/06/2020 Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 25/06/2020 General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt 16/07/2020 Press conference following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt EUR / USD Conflicted ahead of ECB meeting; Fibonacci Support holds bears at bay; Price action awaits high impact economic events; Visit the DailyFX … Thursday December 3, 2020 1:47 pm. Therefore, there was broad agreement that the Governing Council should communicate that, on the basis of this updated assessment, it would recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that financing conditions remained favourable to support the economic recovery, counteracting the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path and thereby fostering the convergence of inflation towards the Governing Council’s aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. Tennessee Emergency Communications Board. The euro area risk-free curve was close to its flattest ever level, while the euro area GDP-weighted sovereign yield curve had shifted down further since the September monetary policy meeting. Turning to the euro area, output had rebounded strongly in the third quarter of 2020. Improved risk sentiment had also put renewed downward pressure on the US dollar, with positioning data pointing to risks of further US dollar depreciation. At the same time, there had also been a reduction in inflation in other items in the price index, which was considered a cause for concern. Equity markets, where policy support was least direct, had experienced a marked correction. European Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement contains the outcome of the ECB's decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. In this context, it could be emphasised that monetary policy was removing obstacles to the expansion of fiscal policy by supporting favourable financing conditions and the proper functioning of financial markets. Finally, the ECB could further cut the deposit rate from -0.5 percent currently. We should also bear in mind the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Instead, euro area sovereign bond spreads had compressed further and corporate bond spreads had remained stable. The euro-area economy is seeing initial signs of strained financing conditions, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said in remarks … With regard to the economic analysis, members generally agreed with the assessment of the current economic situation in the euro area and the risks for activity provided by Mr Lane in his introduction. In terms of categories, the decline was being driven by the extension of seasonal summer sales to non-summer items, a fall in travel-related prices and more negative energy inflation. This provided tangible evidence of how the common European response to the crisis had helped to alleviate pressure on euro area sovereign funding and hence financing conditions. The week ahead - EU summit, ECB rate meeting, China trade, Rolls Royce, Ted Baker, Ocado and Airbnb IPO ANALYSIS | 12/4/2020 3:27:22 PM There had been a strong negative correlation between euro area sovereign spreads and US stock price developments in the weeks before the current meeting. See a full calendar of Governing Council meetings Measures of underlying inflation were also weakening. The three safety nets endorsed by the European Council for workers, businesses and sovereigns provided important funding support in this context. Finally, growing excess liquidity was increasingly putting downward pressure on the term money market and commercial paper rates. On the other side, renewed lockdown measures in different countries on the back of a surge in new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, especially in the euro area, were increasingly reflected in asset price valuations. Find out how the ECB promotes safe and efficient payment and settlement systems, and helps to integrate the infrastructure for European markets. On the basis of oil price dynamics and taking into account the temporary reduction in German VAT, headline inflation was likely to remain negative until early 2021. I have seen the World Food Programme in action and... Qatar Petroleum announces December fuel prices, Qatar expat student enters International Book of Records, Concussed Jadeja ruled out of Australia T20 series, Own goal gifts Real Madrid vital win at Sevilla, Silatech brings together youth across MENA region to design post-Covid era solutions. The emergence of the second wave of the pandemic could lead to more widespread business closures in a number of sectors, for example retail trade. It was noted that euro area financial markets had been relatively calm, with financial conditions – including exchange rate developments – being broadly stable and financing conditions for banks, households and firms remaining very favourable. 14 December 2017 Eurozone PMI ends 2017 with a bang. The curve was now measurably below the pre-pandemic level and firmly in negative territory up to the ten-year maturity. ECB CRIB Sheet September 2020 Meeting. This has helped lower the risk spread between countries in northern Europe with low bond yields, and countries in southern Europe with higher bond yields. Meeting of 29-30 April 2020 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 29-30 April 2020 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market developments Ms Schnabel reviewed the financial market developments since the Governing Council's … * Members not holding a voting right in October 2020 under Article 10.2 of the ESCB Statute. Against this backdrop, members supported the proposal by Mr Lane to leave the overall monetary policy stance unchanged and to reconfirm the full set of existing monetary policy instruments. The winter months would be challenging in terms of limiting the spread of the virus and a sequence of temporary “circuit breaker” lockdowns might prove to be necessary. Turning to euro area developments, members underlined that there had been both positive and negative news since the last monetary policy meeting. ET To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. Thomas Lohnes. High-frequency mobility indicators for transport, retail and recreation had started to weaken. The key role of the NGEU package was stressed, as well as the importance of it becoming operational without delay. It is of significant importance for the Euro area’s economic recovery in 2021 and of particular importance to Euro traders. Look at press releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date, speaker or activity. More concerning is the broad-based weakness across other components since July as demand for goods and services have been more severely impacted by the pandemic than the supply side of the economy. The increase in the gross debt ratio reflected both an increase in debt levels and the steep fall in activity, while net debt in absolute terms had declined slightly as firms accumulated large amounts of liquid assets that offset the increase in gross debt. It was remarked that the flexibility embedded in the PEPP was essential to its continued success. The minutes of the ECB’s October meeting confirmed the central bank’s alertness on the weakening economic outlook, the impact of the second lockdown and the potential downward revisions of the ECB’s projections. 21 September 2018 Eurozone PMI declines in September with exports the main culprit . There was not a single euro area country that was not benefiting from negative yields, in most cases extending out to the three-year maturity. The main challenge now is how rapidly the vaccine can be mass-produced, and at what cost, to enable sufficient vaccinations to reach herd immunity. Wed 9 Sep 2020 23:16:46 GMT. Developments in the global composite output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), excluding the euro area, indicated that the recovery in activity was quite strong up to July but had flat-lined in September. As regards the external environment, members broadly shared the assessment provided by Mr Lane in his introduction. With regard to price developments, there was broad agreement with the assessment presented by Mr Lane in his introduction. Looking ahead, banks reported that they expected a considerable net tightening of credit standards also in the fourth quarter of 2020. The euro area unemployment rate, which had increased from 7.2% in February to 8.1% in August, likely underestimated the ongoing adjustment in the euro area labour market. Newsletter. Moreover, it was highlighted that HICP inflation excluding energy and food had fallen to a new low of 0.2% in September, owing to lower non-energy industrial goods and services inflation. Turning to trade, high-frequency data pointed to a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 and early indications for the fourth quarter were also positive. However, it was unclear whether the liquidity buffers that firms and households had built up in recent months would prove to be sufficient to withstand a renewed deterioration in the economy in the period ahead. At the same time, the Governing Council should clearly signal that on the basis of its updated assessment in December, it would recalibrate all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that financing conditions remained favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path, thereby fostering the convergence of inflation towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. Friday, December 4, 2020 9:37 AM EST ... (ECB) meeting scheduled for next Thursday. While the existing monetary policy instruments were viewed as effective, questions were raised about possible non-linearities, side effects and “diminishing returns” in an environment of high uncertainty and very favourable financial conditions. The council’s decisions are always announced via press release at 1.45pm CET on the day of the meeting, followed by an ECB press conference at 2.30pm CET. Oil prices had increased slightly, by 1.8%, since the Governing Council’s September monetary policy meeting, to stand at USD 39.8 per barrel on 26 October 2020, after trading in a narrow range. Euro Area: ECB ramps up quantitative easing at June meeting June 4, 2020 On 4 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped up its efforts to shore up the economy from the fallout of the global health crisis and prevent financial shockwaves. Home Financial news ECB July 2020 meeting. The ECB policy meeting is taking place against a more urgent backdrop - preview (but little EUR impact?) This included a new round of macroeconomic projections, which would allow a reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks. While banks indicated that their funding and balance sheet conditions remained supportive, higher risk perceptions were weighing on loan creation. It was highlighted that uncertainty remained very high, as it had been throughout the year. Share: When: Thursday 29th October, Decision announced 12:45 GMT, with a press conference 45 minutes later. Euro Area: ECB stands pat in October; points to December meeting for further easing October 29, 2020 On 29 October, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at their all-time lows of 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively. Share. The second reason related to expectations of further monetary policy support by the ECB. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio would be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance. We have local meetings world-wide as well as email and phone meetings. At the same time, clear risks to GDP growth had emerged for the fourth quarter of 2020, linked primarily to the latest news about the plans for more severe lockdowns from November onwards. However, by the time of the December monetary policy meeting, information would be available on major geopolitical developments – such as the result of the US presidential election and Brexit – as well as the initial evidence on the effectiveness of the new restrictions in containing the spread of the virus and their impact on the economy. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. October 29, 2020. QNB does not expect Euro area GDP to return to its pre-crisis levels until 2022. 05:02 Fri, Nov 13 2020 … With regard to the monetary policy measures taken since early March, members widely agreed that they were helping to preserve favourable financing conditions for all sectors and jurisdictions across the euro area, thereby providing crucial support to underpin economic activity and to safeguard medium-term price stability. Key figures and latest releases at a glance. Activity in the services sector was being hit the hardest, since it was most affected by the renewed restrictions on mobility and social interaction. This is likely to be due to a number of factors including medical professionals having a better understanding of the virus and treatment options. However, with its main policy interest rate already in negative territory, the ECB is dependent on unconventional policy tools. ET First Published: Oct. 27, 2020 at 4:16 p.m. In particular, the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) remained an attractive source of funding for banks, supporting bank lending to firms and households. Join roundtables discussions after each conference session; Arrange 1-2-1 meetings with our expert speakers and other delegates The October bank lending survey signalled a tightening of credit standards, primarily related to a deterioration in banks’ perceptions of the risks underlying the macroeconomic environment and borrowers’ creditworthiness. Dec 2, 2020 Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness Dec 2, 2020 Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Breakout Stalls into … Author: Eamonn Sheridan | … To ease the TLTRO-III conditions the ECB has put in place a special interest rate period, during which banks can get the funds for a one year time period at -1% subject to meeting certain lending conditions. SE, Leesburg, VA 20175 According to the survey, banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet situation had not contributed to the tightening, underscoring the positive impact of monetary policy support on bank funding conditions. Moreover, further fiscal and supervisory policy support might be forthcoming in the fourth quarter. Since the September monetary policy meeting, market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations had halted their recovery and remained broadly stable around their pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, by that time, draft national budgetary plans and their assessment by the European Commission should also have become available, together with further indications on the prospective use of NGEU funds. 3 - Top LHS) - if we exclude this … 23 January 2020 At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and … Regarding recent developments in inflation expectations, members noted that longer-term inflation expectations reported in the ECB’s SPF were stable at 1.7%, while market-based indicators of inflation expectations had declined slightly, with the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead standing at 1.16%. However, following the trough in April 2020, the euro area economy had rebounded strongly in the third quarter, likely more than had been expected in the September ECB staff projections, making up a large part of the contraction in the first half of the year. The monetary policy measures taken in response to the pandemic had been effective and efficient in stabilising financial markets and supporting financing conditions for households and businesses. Against this backdrop, concerns were expressed about a likely increase in non-performing loans and a heterogeneous impact of the pandemic on the banking sector across countries. 11 May 2018 Eurozone: Reality check. Looking ahead, while the uncertainty related to the evolution of the pandemic was likely to dampen the strength of the recovery in the labour market and in consumption and investment, the euro area economy should continue to be supported by favourable financing conditions and an expansionary fiscal stance. Household savings were expected to remain high, but income support remained important for consumer confidence over the coming months in order to protect the economy. In normal circumstances, the ECB’s Governing Council holds two meetings every month in Frankfurt am Main in Germany at the ECB premises.. Every 6 weeks, the Governing Council holds a monetary policy meeting, when they are charged with assessing monetary and economic developments within the Eurozone and making … Summing up, Mr Lane pointed out that, after a strong (albeit partial and uneven) rebound in economic activity over the summer months, the incoming data signalled that the euro area economic recovery was losing momentum relative to the previously projected recovery path. Following a strong, but partial and uneven, rebound in the third quarter, the rise in COVID-19 cases and the associated intensification of containment measures was weighing on activity and constituted a clear deterioration in the near-term outlook. The resilience in corporate bond markets likely also reflected the fact that firms had built up significant liquidity buffers over the past several months, limiting the extent to which they would have to rely on external credit in the event of a renewed collapse in business activity. However,QNB considers this move unlikely because it would further reduce the profitability of Euro area banks, which find it difficult to pass-on negative interest rates to depositors and other sources of funding. Ms Schnabel reviewed the financial market developments since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 9-10 September 2020. Financial vulnerabilities in the corporate sector, in particular, could have negative ramifications for banks’ balance sheets and give rise to adverse real-financial feedback loops. At the October meeting, the ECB kept the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility and deposit facility steady at 0%, 0.25% and -0.5%, respectively. While the September baseline scenario had assumed some resurgence of the virus and the need for ongoing containment measures, recent developments were seen as constituting a clear downside risk to the projections. 27 June 2018 Stronger eurozone loan growth eases slowdown concerns. The Governing Council needed to signal that it stood ready to act with all the flexibility that was embodied in its pandemic emergency monetary policy tools, while also stressing its determination to act and signalling its willingness to adjust all instruments, if needed. No data released so far had incorporated the recent announcements of further containment measures. It was also remarked that the rate of infections appeared to be more relevant for economic activity than the stringency of containment measures, which varied considerably. European Central Bank policymakers meeting last month agreed they could not afford to seem complacent in the face of a second-wave of coronavirus … Global activity had rebounded swiftly early in the third quarter and more strongly than expected. This increase in Covid-19 infections is coinciding with the flu season that lasts from October until May in the Northern Hemisphere, which raises concerns over the capacity of the health care infrastructure such has hospital beds and particularly intensive care beds. Sovereign spreads had declined further amid expectations of additional monetary and fiscal support. It was noted that taking monetary policy decisions in December would be consistent with prevailing market expectations. In its communication, the Governing Council needed to: (a) stress that the incoming information signalled that the euro area economic recovery was losing momentum and that the rise in COVID-19 infections and the associated intensification of containment measures was weighing on economic activity, constituting a clear deterioration in the near-term outlook; (b) emphasise that measures of underlying inflation were declining and that inflation pressures were expected to remain subdued on account of weak demand, lower wage pressures and the past appreciation of the euro; (c) underline that in the current environment of risks clearly tilted to the downside, the Governing Council would carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic and developments in the euro exchange rate, and that the new round of Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections in December would allow a thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks; (d) highlight that on the basis of this updated assessment, the Governing Council would recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that financing conditions remained favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path, thereby fostering the convergence of inflation towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry; and (e) emphasise that an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remained critical in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy and the reduction in private demand. For instance, the service sector PMI in the four largest Euro area economies has drifted lower and now indicates contraction. However, it was also stressed that the Governing Council was in a position to act at any time, if needed. Headline inflation had declined from -0.2% in August to -0.3% in September, with inflation excluding energy and food decreasing from 0.4% to an all-time low of 0.2%. ECB meeting schedule. Against this background, members argued that, looking ahead, it would be important to consider the possibility that the pandemic might have longer-lasting effects both on the demand side and on the supply side, reducing potential growth. Market-based indicators and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had remained broadly unchanged at low levels.

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